Prices held. Buyers paused. Here's what the numbers actually mean for you.
BY LAUREN SALZ · 6 MIN READ
Every month, the Fort Collins Board of REALTORS® puts out a 16-page report on our local housing market.
Most people never see it. The few who do merely skim the headline numbers… typically. But we're not typical. We read every page. Then we ask the only question that matters: what does this mean for the people we serve every single day?
That's what this is. Not a recap. Our honest take.
October 2026 at a glance · single-family homes · compared to October 2025
Less inventory. Less demand. Prices holding steady anyway.
That's not a crash. That's a market catching its breath.
01
Buyers aren't gone. They're doing math.
Pending sales dropped 30.5% from last October. That's the number that jumped off the page for us.
Pending sales are signed contracts, so they're the best early signal of where buyers' heads are. And right now, plenty of buyers are sitting at the kitchen table with a calculator.
Here's why. The report's Housing Affordability Index for single-family homes fell to 68. In plain English: the typical household here earns about 68% of the income needed to qualify for the typical single-family home at today's rates. A year ago, that number was 77.
Then there's the rate-lock problem. If you're sitting on a 2.5% mortgage, why trade it for a 7% rate on a home that isn't much bigger, or much nicer? For many families, a lateral move just doesn't pencil. So they stay put.
Here's what that looks like in real life. We're working with a buyer right now who is ready, truly motivated, to call Northern Colorado home.
The catch? Their current home is in another state, in a rural area where buyers are few and far between. Until it sells, the cash for the next home is stuck.
And even once it sells, the math is humbling. The house and land they have now are dramatically bigger than what the same budget buys here.
That's the part the stats don't show. If a move means trading down on the life you love, it's hard to get excited about it.
People who don't have to move need a reason: a better lifestyle, not just a different address. People who do have to move, for a new job, a growing family, or a hard goodbye, will move anyway. That's always been true. It always will be.
WHAT IT MEANS
Today's pending sales are next month's closings. Expect December to look slow, too. That's not a red flag. It's the season, plus math.
02
Why prices are holding steady anyway
If buyers are pulling back, shouldn't prices be falling?
Not when sellers are pulling back too. New listings were down 10.9%. Fewer people want to give up their low rate to sell, so supply is shrinking right alongside demand.
That's why the median single-family price actually rose 3.3%, to $624,950. Year-to-date, it's up a steady 0.8%. Homes that sold got 98.7% of their list price.
WHAT IT MEANS
This is a stalemate, not a slide. Both sides are waiting. The people who move anyway, because life happens, are still getting fair prices on both ends.
03
Median vs. average: the stat everyone misreads
The median price went up 3.3%. The average price went down 6.7%. How can both be true?
In October, zero homes over $2 million closed. In September, three did. That alone pulled the average down.
But zoom out. Over the past 12 months, $2M+ single-family sales are actually up 22.6% (38 sales, compared with 31 the year before).
WHAT IT MEANS
October's dip was a lull at the top, not a trend. When you see a scary headline about "falling prices," ask which number they're using.
04
The 98.7% trap
That 98.7% of list price sounds like sellers are naming their price. Be careful.
The report measures sale price against the home's most recent list price. If a home started high, sat, and got a price cut, the 98.7% is measured after the cut.
WHAT IT MEANS
Homes don't sell for 98.7% of what sellers hoped. They sell for 98.7% of where they ended up. Price it right the first time, and you skip the slow, expensive part.
05
Where inventory is piling up (and where it isn't)
This is the most useful page in the whole report, and it's buried on page 15.
WHAT IT MEANS
If you're a move-up buyer, that's a double squeeze. The home you're selling has more competition. The home you're buying has fewer choices. That's why the strategy behind a buy/sell matters more than ever.
06
Condos and townhomes: the quiet Opportunity
Attached homes had a softer month. The median price fell 5.1%, to $403,500. New listings dropped 39.1%, and inventory sits at 3.9 months, the highest in the report.
But look at affordability. The townhome-condo affordability index is 105, compared with 68 for single-family homes. By the report's measure, a typical household earns enough to qualify for the typical condo or townhome here.
WHAT IT MEANS
For first-time buyers, and for anyone thinking about a future rental, this is the most approachable corner of the market right now.
07
City by city: one market, three stories
"The market" isn't one market. Here's how October looked in the towns we work in every day.
| CITY | MEDIAN | CLOSED | DAYS | SUPPLY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Collins | $672,000 (+7.5%) | 118 (−29.3%) | 70 | 2.9 mo |
| Windsor | $597,500 (−1.0%) | 52 (−33.3%) | 91 | 3.8 mo |
| Loveland | $522,500 (−7.5%) | 74 (−11.9%) | 67 | 3.4 mo |
Single-family homes, October 2026 vs. October 2025.
Fort Collins: still the tightest market in town. With 2.9 months of inventory, it's the hardest place in Northern Colorado to find a home. Single-month medians can be noisy, so we'd lean on the year-to-date number: up 1.7%, to $638,950.
Windsor: the buyer's breathing room. The most inventory and the slowest pace of the three. Buyers can take their time and negotiate. Sellers need sharp pricing and a home that shows beautifully.
Loveland: the quiet overachiever. Homes are selling 13 days faster than last year, and year-to-date sales are up 7.7%. If you want more home for your money, this is where we'd start looking.
08
What we'd do right now
Less competition is a real advantage. Fewer listings means your home gets noticed. But buyers aren't in a hurry, so price it right on day one (remember the 98.7% trap) and make sure it shows beautifully.
The holidays are traditionally the quietest stretch of the year. That usually means more room to negotiate and fewer people competing for the same house. Condos and townhomes especially are giving buyers breathing room on price.
Run the real numbers before you rule it out. Your rate matters, but so does your equity, your timeline, and how the buy and the sell line up. Sometimes the math surprises people. Sometimes it confirms that staying is the right call. Either way, you'll know.
09
What we're watching this winter
- Interest rates. Even a modest move changes the math for every rate-locked homeowner on the fence.
- January new listings. Listings climb again after the holidays every year. How fast they come back will set the tone for spring.
- The spring rebound in pending sales. The report's historical charts show pending sales climbing every spring. We'll be watching how strong this one is.
This market rewards preparation, not panic.
Behind every one of these numbers is a family deciding whether this is the year. Whether to stay, go, grow, or wait.
There's no wrong answer. Just the right one for you. And we'd love to help you find it.
BRENNEN &
LAUREN SALZ
REALTORS® & Broker-Owners
970-508-9948
Hello@SalzHomeSolutions.com
SalzHomeSolutions.com
Source: Fort Collins Board of REALTORS® Monthly Indicators and Local Market Updates, October 2026. Data from IRES, LLC and REcolorado®; report © 2026 ShowingTime Plus, LLC. Current as of November 4, 2026. Percent changes compare October 2026 to October 2025 unless noted. Salz Home Solutions, a Northern Colorado boutique real estate brokerage.
